2026-10-20 · 6 min read · McKinney
Do You Need a Home Now? What 50 Years of Collin County Prices Say
Your life sets the clock
In Part 1, we looked at what waiting for a lower rate actually saves. Usually less than people expect. The better question is simpler. Do you need a home now, or later?
The best reasons to buy in McKinney have nothing to do with rates. A few I hear all the time:
- You have outgrown the house you are in, and it shows every single day.
- A new job, a new commute, or a lease that ends in the spring.
- A parent moving in, or a kid moving out.
- You are tired of rent going up every year with nothing to show for it.
If one of those is your situation, waiting on rates means living with the problem longer. That has a cost too, even if it does not show up on a spreadsheet. If this is your first purchase, see first-time buyers in McKinney.
This is a three-part series, Buy Now or Wait? Part 1: what if rates don't come down. Part 2: do you need a home now. Part 3: taxes, homestead and equity.
When waiting is the right call
Sometimes waiting really is smarter. I will tell you that when I see it:
- You might move again within about three years. Buying and selling costs can eat any gain in a short stretch.
- Your job or income is up in the air. Get settled first.
- Closing would wipe out your savings. You want a cushion left over after you get the keys.
- The payment only works if everything goes right. That is a stretch, not a plan.
50 years of Collin County home prices
Here is what the market has done every year since 1976. This comes from the federal government's home price index for Collin County, which tracks the same homes as they sell and refinance over time.
Three things stand out to me.
Down years happen, and they are rare. Prices fell in 7 of the last 50 years: 1987 through 1989 during the Texas oil bust, 2009 through 2011 after the national housing crash, and slightly in 2025.
Time is on your side. Out of 41 ten-year stretches since 1975, only 3 ended lower than they started, and all 3 ran through the oil bust. The worst one averaged a loss of less than half a percent a year.
Booms are the exception. The 24% jump in 2022 is not normal, and nobody should buy expecting it again. Plan on something closer to the long-run average, and be happy if you beat it.
What about right now?
You may have seen headlines that Collin County prices are down 3% to 7% this year. Those numbers are real, but they track the middle price of whatever sold that month, which shifts with the mix of homes. The government index above, which follows the same homes, shows prices roughly flat: down 0.7% in 2025 and about even through mid-2026 for the Dallas-Plano area.
Flat prices and far more homes for sale add up to something buyers have not had in years: choices and room to negotiate. Seller-paid closing costs, repairs, and builder rate buydowns are all back on the table.
Past performance does not promise future results. That is true of your 401(k), and it is true of houses. But 50 years of data is a lot steadier than one week of headlines.
Here's the move
Decide on your life first. If you need the space and plan to stay five years or more, history is on your side, and today's market gives you more bargaining power than buyers had in 2022. Next, read Part 3 on homestead, taxes and equity.
Not sure if you are a "now" or a "later"? Tell me what is going on and I will give you my read. If the answer is wait, I will say so.
Ask Terri or call me at 469-693-3839. You can also see how I help you buy, or start with buying a home in McKinney.
Sources and notes
Terri Egstad, Realtor®, Pinnacle Realty Advisors. Appreciation figures use the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for Collin County (annual, through 2025) and the Dallas-Plano-Irving index (quarterly, through Q2 2026). The index includes refinance appraisals as well as sales. Past appreciation does not guarantee future appreciation. This post is general information, not financial, tax, or lending advice. Your rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan type, so talk to a licensed lender before you decide.
Sources